Brookings Press Blog

SHOOTING UP Author Discusses Afghanistan on PRI’s “To the Point”

Vanda Felbab-Brown recently warned about the risks associated with reaching out to the Taliban in a conversation with “To the Point” host Warren Olney. "There is real danger for the [Obama] administration to signal that they do not believe the military offensive, the multi-faceted surge will make a difference," said Felbab-Brown. "And thereby engaging in strategic negotiations with the Taliban leadership that was responsible for the al Qaeda safe-haven, that will be associated with 9-11, really leaves the administration vulnerable to charges of being soft on protecting US homeland." 

Other participants in the program include Lieutenant General Nick Parker, deputy commander under General Stanley McChrystal for the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan; ISAF special adviser Sarah Chayes; and Pakistani journalist Ahmed Rashid.

- Hear the discussion on “To the Point.”

- Read Felbab-Brown's reaction to the State of the Union.

- Learn more about Shooting Up.

Counterinsurgency Expert Vanda Felbab-Brown Quoted in the New York Times

Should the Afghan government reach out to the Taliban? No, says, Shooting Up author and Brookings fellow Vanda Felbab-Brown: “The more there is talk of negotiation, the more the Taliban view it as a sign of weakness. How do you make sure the reconciliation process does not embolden the Taliban to go on the march?” But Richard C. Holbrooke, the U.S. special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, is said to be "privately receptive" to the idea.

- Read the New York Times article.

- Listen to the podcast of a recent discussion of Shooting Up with Felbab-Brown, Brookings vice president Martin Indyk, and Wendy Chamberlin, former ambassador to Pakistan and president of the Middle East Institute.

- Learn more about Shooting Up.

David Brooks cites WHAT WORKS IN DEVELOPMENT?

In his New York Times column, David Brooks discussed the underlying causes of the tremendous destruction from the earthquake in Haiti. He referred to What Works in Development? edited by Jessica Cohen and William Easterly to back up his point that “we don’t know how to use aid to reduce poverty.” Countries have spent trillions of dollars in foreign aid worldwide, yet this assistance has not generated growth. According to the book:

The picture is grim. There are no policy levers that consistently correlate to increased growth. There is nearly zero correlation between how a developing economy does one decade and how it does the next. There is no consistently proven way to reduce corruption. Even improving governing institutions doesn’t seem to produce the expected results.

- Read the full New York Times column by David Brooks

- Learn more about What Works in Development?

Grading the President’s Afghanistan Policy: Vanda Felbab-Brown Gives the Administration a B

As part of The Status Report, a daily series of commentary with video from Brookings scholars to be featured in POLITICO's The Arena, Vanda Felbab-Brown gives President Obama a B for laying out the right strategy on Afghanistan and Pakistan but taking too much time to decide on a plan. Felbab-Brown, an expert on counterinsurgency and the author of Shooting Up, writes, “Unfortunately 2009 turned out to be a year of lost opportunities in Afghanistan during which momentum continued to be lost to the insurgency, corruption, and apathy.” The amount of time required for the fall policy review, she argues, “further weakened the already fragile confidence in the United States, abroad and among the Afghan population. With respect to the objective of improving governance and thus harnessing the aspirations of Afghan people, expectations were also dashed. The international community was unprepared for the widespread corruption that plagued the Afghan presidential elections and the background dealing among Afghan powerbrokers that characterized months of the presidential campaign. And the subsequent bashing of President-Elect Hamid Karzai in the international community for corruption did little to establish the needed foundation for improved governance in Afghanistan.”

- Read more of Felbab-Brown’s analysis.

- See her December 2008 memo to the president on policy in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

- Learn more about Shooting Up.

Vanda Felbab-Brown Blogs on the Karzai Brothers for The New York Times

Brookings fellow Vanda Felbab-Brown, author of the forthcoming Shooting Up: Counterinsurgency and the War on Drugs, joins Robert D. Kaplan (Center for a New American Security), Frederick W. Kagan (American Enterprise Institute), Stephen Biddle (Council on Foreign Relations), and Andrew J. Bacevich (Boston University) on the New York Times blog, Room for Debate, to discuss the Karzai brothers and the challenges they create for U.S. policy in Afghanistan. Numerous reports have linked Ahmed Wali Karzai, the leading power broker in Kandahar and brother of President Hamid Karzai, to drug trafficking. But as Felbab-Brown points out, the Karzais are only the tip of the iceberg: “Indeed, many power brokers in Afghanistan—including some of today’s staunchest eradicators of the poppy crop and members of the Ministry of Interior’s counternarcotics section—have been involved in the drug trade. Because opium constitutes between a third and a half of the country’s gross domestic product (and has been for 20 years), it is deeply embedded in the society’s socio-economic fabric, political arrangements and power relations.”

- Follow the discussion at Room for Debate.

- Learn more about Shooting Up.

Brookings Press Author Testifies Before Senate Panel

On October 21, in testimony before the Senate Caucus on International Narcotics Control, Vanda Felbab-Brown—author of the forthcoming book Shooting Up: Counterinsurgency and the War on Drugs—discussed how narcotics production influences security, political, and economic developments in Afghanistan. She also examined the effectiveness of policies to mitigate these effects, offering recommendations for U.S. policy, and equally critically, urging strategic patience: “Meaningful and sustainable progress on narcotics that also advances counterinsurgency and counterterrorism objectives, mitigates conflict, and enhances state building and human security of the Afghan people will take many years and easily decades. Without realistic timelines, there is a real danger that even a well-designed counternarcotics policy will be prematurely and unfortunately discarded as ineffective and that a desire for short-term self-satisfying outcomes will once again drive policy toward ineffective and counterproductive results.”

- Read Felbab-Brown’s testimony.

- Listen to Felbab-Brown discuss opium production in Afghanistan with NPR’s Noah Adams.

- Learn more about Shooting Up.

Will Pakistan cave in?

Bruce Riedel investigates the historical and current frameworks of the jihadist movement in Pakistan

National Interest editor, Justine Rosenthal, interviews Bruce Riedel

Who knows what the future may hold? As Pakistan breeds instability within many socio-political dimensions, a jihadist takeover of the nation might sprout the most fatal threat to security in the Middle East and for the United States. Bruce Riedel examines the possibility of the invasion of the Taliban, al Qaeda, and other terrorist factions in one of the Middle East’s most vulnerable states. In a National Interest article, Riedel traces the history of the Pakistani dilemma and links it to current developments.

Will Pakistan be the beginning of the end of terrorism in the Middle East? In his insightful analysis, Riedel says, “Pakistan is a complex and combustible society undergoing a severe crisis. America helped create that crisis over a long period of time. If we don’t help Pakistan now, we may have to deal with a jihadist Pakistan later. That should focus our attention.”

- Learn more about Riedel's latest book book, The Search for al Qaeda

- Read “Armageddon in Islamabad” by Bruce Riedel in National Interest

- Watch National Interest editor, Justine Rosenthal, interview Riedel

What do you know about Al-Qaeda?

Bruce Riedel’s Search for al-Qaeda receives critical acclaim

In The Search for al Qaeda: Its Leadership, Ideology, and Future, Middle East expert and former CIA officer Bruce Riedel argues that the past Administration was mistaken to declare a “war on terror” rather than a war against al Qaeda. In the book, he reviews how al Qaeda was created and developed, presenting authoritative and chilling background on "The Manhattan Raid," and focuses closely on what has happened to the movement since 9/11. He outlines al Qaeda’s ultimate goals and with a comprehensive analysis, reveals the origins, leadership, ideology, and strategy of the terrorist network. The book ends with innovative recommendations on how this movement can be stopped.

Critics maintain that The Search for al Qaeda “promotes, and provokes, fresh thinking and polemics.” Even in that sense alone, it is a valuable contribution to the public debate. Amir Taheri of AlSharq AlAwsat adds, “With the Obama administration apparently adopting Riedel’s analysis, we should soon know whether these recommendations would produce the desired effects.”

If the first rule of war is to "know your enemy," then we have a long way to go in winning this war against terror. As Riedel advises, it begins with the search for al Qaeda.

Bruce Riedel was a senior advisor to three U.S. presidents on Middle East and South Asian issues. He is currently a senior fellow with Brookings' Saban Center for Middle East Policy. At the request of President Obama, he chaired an interagency review of policy toward Afghanistan and Pakistan for the White House that was completed in March 2009.

- Begin your Search for Al-Qaeda

- Read reviews of The Search for al Qaeda by Amir Taheri of AlSharq AlAwsat and by Mark Mazzetti of the New York Times

How the Kashmir Dispute Affects Security in South Asia

Author Howard B. Schaffer reveals the limits of American influence in the Kashmir region

The escalating dispute in the Kashmir region proves a threat to security in South-Asia and to the United States. In an interview with the Council on Foreign Relations, former ambassador to Bangladesh and author of The Limits of Influence: America's Role in Kashmir, Howard Shaffer discloses the growing dangers of the conflict between India and Pakistan, warning that the dispute may instigate the emergence of a potential nuclear war. He urges independent settlement in both areas to promote India-Pakistan relations.

As for Washington’s influence, Schaffer states, "If Washington does find a propitious opportunity to play a more active role, the settlement it promotes should call for making the Line of Control a permanent border that is porous; autonomy for Kashmiris on both sides; and joint institutions on an all-Kashmir basis."

Howard B. Schaffer has spent thirty-six years as an officer of the U.S Foreign Service, through which he was appointed ambassador to Bangladesh. Ambassador Schaffer currently teaches and writes at Georgetown University and widely recognized as a leading American specialist on South Asia. He is the author of highly regarded biographies of two American diplomats who served as ambassadors to India at times when Washington was deeply involved in efforts to resolve the Kashmir dispute. They were published as Chester Bowles: New Dealer in the Cold War (Harvard University Press, 1993) and Ellsworth Bunker: Global Troubleshooter, Vietnam Hawk (University of North Carolina Press, 2003). Schaffer is also the author of many articles on South Asian matters.

- Learn more about The Limits of Influence

- Read the complete interview with the Council on Foreign Relations

A look into Africa: Robert Rothberg discusses governance and leadership

The principles of global governance, and what it means for the rest of us

In an interview with The Africa Group [pdf], Robert Rotberg underscores the importance of engaging developing regions such as Botswana, Ethiopia and Nigeria in the rising value of principles in the world order. Rotberg discusses the transformation of Africa and China, stating, “China will continue to have a profound influence in the development of Africa. Africa, however, needs to develop a multilateral, collective response to China’s involvement.” He adds that though Africa is not immune to the current global meltdown, there are still good opportunities in some sectors for African development. What this means is economic growth for Africa and for better relations between Africa and the rest of the world. But as China submerges itself into the African government, there is a chance that this evolving symbiosis will make Africa the poorest and most troubled continent, while it further powers China’s expansive economic machine.

In the book China into Africa: Trade, Aid, and Influence, Rotberg and a team of renowned scholars tackle China’s interest in African oil, military and security relations, the influx and goals of Chinese aid to sub-Saharan Africa, human rights issues, and China’s overall strategy toward Africa. They outline Africa’s chance for poverty alleviation in the developing regions through a system that promises to do more than anything attempted by Western colonialism or international aid programs.

Rotberg further addresses the issue in his latest book, Corruption, Global Security, and World Order. In collaboration with a distinguished group of contributors, he discusses the global ramifications and implications of deeply embedded corruption in various nations.

Robert I. Rotberg is director of the Program on Intrastate Conflict, Conflict Prevention, and Conflict Resolution at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government, and president of the World Peace Foundation. Rotberg has authored and edited numerous books, on Africa and global governance including Worst of the Worst: Dealing with Repressive and Rogue Nations (Brookings & World Peace Foundation, 2007) and Ending Autocracy, Enabling Democracy: the Tribulations of Southern Africa 1960-2000 (World Peace Foundation, 2001).

- Learn more about China into Africa

- Learn more about Corruption, Global Security, and World Order

- Read the full interview with Mamao Mihretu of The Africa Group [pdf]